Banks Face Added Risks in a Tough New Regulatory Arena

Bankers Trust was an aggressive and entrepreneurial commercial bank
that developed some of the basic risk management tools now used
throughout the banking industry. (It merged with Deutsche Bank in
1999.) "We moved from Keynesianism to monetarism in my career and it
wiped out one whole generation of traders," said Charles Sanford, the
former chairman of Bankers Trust. He added that double-digit inflation
in the 1970s wiped out another group of traders.

His point was that for a bank to manage its risks successfully, it must
make sure that those making decisions within the bank are accurately
gauging the environment around them. If their assumptions about
significant changes in the markets are wrong or outdated, they are
liable to make bad decisions.

"Judgment and Character"

Sanford made these remarks at a recent Wharton conference called
"Financial Risk Management in Practice: The Known, the Unknown and the
Unknowable," which brought together academics and industry participants
to discuss how risk is seen in different parts of the financial system,
including banking, financial policy-making, asset management and
insurance. The conference was co-sponsored by Mercer Oliver Wyman
Institute, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Wharton’s Financial
Institutions Center. In addition to Sanford, the panel on banking
included investment banker Geoffrey Boisi, and H. Rodgin Cohen,
chairman of international law firm Sullivan & Cromwell and an
expert in bank mergers and acquisitions.

Each speaker focused on different risks that can affect the success of
a bank. Boisi stressed the importance of relationships and
accountability. Developing a culture for success within a bank depends
on the type of people hired, the motivational structure (in effect, the
compensation system), the strength of the review system, and
accountability — and it all starts with leadership, he said. He noted
that the fundamental risks a bank must manage involve human nature. We
can’t develop a "mathematical tool to deal with that," he said. "It
always gets back to judgment and character."

Boisi is a former investment banker who spent 22 years at Goldman
Sachs, 15 of them as a senior managing partner. In 1993, he and three
former colleagues from Goldman formed The Beacon Group, a private
investment firm. Care was taken in creating the partnership structure
to foster the right attitude toward risk. "Each of the original
partners had an equal share in the upside and low current income [at
Beacon] so they were locked in, and capital was maintained inside the
business to engender long-term thinking," Boisi said.

The firm raised an initial $700 million, the largest amount for a
private equity firm at the time, and went on to raise another $1.1
billion. Beacon developed a strong middle-market M&A practice and
money management business, and grew to about 125 employees. When
Goldman went public in November 1999, however, the motivation of some
of Beacon’s executives changed. "They wanted more immediate liquidity
than the agreement we had when we started," said Boisi.

Beacon was acquired by Chase Manhattan Bank in 2000, just before Chase
merged with J.P. Morgan to become the one of the largest global
financial services firms. Boisi became vice chairman of the new entity,
JPMorgan Chase, and co-head of the investment banking division.

Then the "thunderbolts" hit: recession, the tech bubble, the death of
some key leaders within the organization, 9/11, Enron, Tyco, and the
equity research scandal. Dealing with that during a period of bank
consolidation was "an immense challenge, yet we were named bank of the
year, and we instituted, with a lot of bumps in the road, a new risk
management system within the new organization," said Boisi.

He noted that those in risk-taking positions must be accountable for
their decisions. At Goldman, Boisi said, the firm’s partners were
accountable because they had their capital on the line. If there was a
disagreement about, say, underwriting, it would be taken to the
eight-person management committee. At Chase and then JPMorgan Chase, a
different system was in place. "The head of the business line no longer
sat at the table, with bottom-line responsibility [for what went on in
his division]," Boisi said. "That surprised me and was a cause of
friction in my mind philosophically with the senior management there."

Boisi left the bank in 2002. That year, as the pile-up of accounting
scandals continued to grow, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act overhauled corporate
governance. The legislation has had positive effects, Boisi said,
although it has gone too far. "Are we providing the right checks and
balances in looking at the governance structure?" he asked. In his
view, the long-term success of any organization depends on the way
individuals think about risk. "How can you look into the soul of a
relationship and determine if you can trust it?" asked Boisi. From a
risk standpoint, that’s what managers must do, he said.

Countering the Biases

Sanford agreed with Boisi that a bank’s culture must be imposed from
the top down. He emphasized the importance of understanding how people
think and make decisions, particularly under stressful conditions. "We
rely much, much too much on what we think we know," he said. "We should
always be more skeptical than we are."

Inertia and proprietary attitudes toward a department or group are also
risks. In Sanford’s view, one way to get around that is to move people
around within a bank. Moreover, intellectual agility must be
encouraged. "We recruit and train people under an existing environment
at that time," he said. But times change, and that makes it critical
for managers to continually "be judging their people’s understanding of
the current environment."

"We ought to treat people doing risk management like pilots in
airlines," Sanford suggested. "Every X period of time, at a minimum of
once a year, have them go down and sit in a simulator and see if
they’re up to speed and see if they understand what we think the
environment is." If not, all the available analysis and quantitative
modeling won’t counter the biases individuals carry with them.

At the same time, Sanford noted that risk management has become more
sophisticated in recent years. Faster communications and the increase
in computing power have "allowed us to transform a stream of data into
usable information we couldn’t possibly [have had] before, and it
creates more knowns," he said. The focus on the risks a bank’s
institutional customers face, the use of probabilities and data
analysis, and the tailoring of financial products to meet clients’
needs — all this helps banks innovate and improve their business, he
added.

Sanford made a number of other observations: It’s important for a
bank’s traders not to be too confident of a model’s forecasts about
market conditions more than two weeks out. Banks should be
over-capitalized, especially as they increase in size, because of
liquidity concerns. Banks should have a risk management committee on
the board of directors, and the CEO should be the top risk manager. On
the subject of compensation, he pointed out that it can serve as a
rough check on risk. What’s key is the "size of the bonus and the
computation — is it asymmetrical? So often it’s heads he wins, tails I
lose," he said.

Cohen took a different approach to risk in the banking industry, noting
that the risk that looms largest is the uncertainty surrounding the
current regulatory environment. Cohen is one of the country’s experts
on banking M&As and regulatory issues. Over the last two decades,
he has been involved in most of the major mergers between banks.

He outlined the risk succinctly: "What is known today is that the
regulatory environment is far more stringent and unpredictable. What is
unknown is what impact this regulatory environment will have on the
banking industry, including consolidation. What’s unknowable is the
impact of this environment on individual institutions because of the
randomness of the process."

From Collaborative to Confrontational

Over the last few years, bank supervision has "moved from a regulatory
approach that was collaborative to one that is confrontational, from
market-oriented to prescriptive," he said. Regulators have become more
hard-nosed. They search more aggressively for violations, mete out
stiffer punishment, and treat bad judgment and mistakes "as worthy of
severe sanction," he said. "They reject common practice or the absence
of prior criticism as a defense."

In Cohen’s view, banking institutions are especially vulnerable to the
current combination of tough laws and "subjective judgment" for two
reasons. First, banks face a "multiplicity of regulators." They deal
with federal bank regulators, state bank regulators, FinCen (the
Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network), the
Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission, as well as foreign regulators. This creates a complex and
overlapping network of regulation. The second reason banks are
vulnerable is the "criminalization of the banking law," noted Cohen.
Until a couple of years ago, bank regulatory agencies were the primary
overseers of banks. That’s no longer the case. "Law enforcement
[agencies] now see themselves as having direct and primary jurisdiction
over violations of banking law," he said.

An example of the increasing stringency is the hardening of compliance
standards associated with the Bank Secrecy Act. The BSA was amended by
the USA Patriot Act of 2001 to combat money laundering and terrorist
financing. There are now "more rigorous BSA examinations, more
stringent standards, harsher criticism, and more automatic applications
of sanctions," Cohen said. Failure to maintain a robust BSA program "is
today a truly franchise-threatening matter."

This shift could affect the trajectory of the banking industry. An
enforcement order could result "in a ban on acquisitions for a period
of time — until the [enforcement] order is lifted," said Cohen. A
criminal prosecution would up the ante. So far, banks have avoided
criminal prosecution by entering into deferred prosecution agreements,
but "if the Department of Justice insists on a guilty plea, it is far
from clear that the banking organization could survive — at least as
an independent entity." At its extreme, a conviction of a
money-laundering offense would require the FDIC to determine whether
the bank should lose its federal deposit insurance.

Cohen ended with a plea: that regulators and law enforcement agencies
distinguish between violations arising from mistakes or negligence and
deliberate transgressions of the law. "In the absence of clearly stated
prior regulatory criticism, remedies should be prospective and
structural, as opposed to being retroactive and punitive," he said.
Echoing one of Sanford’s earlier points, he added that bank executives
should be careful about what they think they know since a changing
environment can leave them operating under outdated assumptions.

posted by albertxu at 2:54 pm & filed under 资本市场 |