趋势跟踪(顺势交易名家策略解读) ****

January 15th, 2008

本书很值得一读,里面的思想十分的符合老子的哲学。

国内的很多的股票著作都有其中的影子,例如,截断亏损,让利润奔跑。

更多的 resource:

http://www.turtletrader.com/readings.html

http://www.trendfollowing.com/resources.html

现代金融理论的基石是正态分布,然而实际生活中的风险分布并不是正态分布的,6西格玛的事件或许明天就会出现,这就是 Long Term Capital 倒闭的原因。

混沌,非线性是我们世界的主流,趋势本身是线性的,然而,我们必须在小趋势中发现大趋势,尽管这种说法也很矛盾,因为小趋势未必一定能发展成大趋势。

  • The great trend followers, their approaches and claims to fame, including their results over the years;
  • Performance data for trend following and how absolute returns, volatility (including the “vomatility” threshold), draw
    downs, correlation and the zero-sum game factor in;
  • A fascinating section on the high-profile trading events  where trend followers won huge profits (in many cases, where
    the buy-and-hold crowd were being blown away), including the stock market bubble, the Enron scandal, September 11
    terrorist actions, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the Barings Bank meltdown and others;
  • Human behaviors that will almost guarantee losses in the markets, the importance of curiosity over standard higher
    education;
  • The simple (but not unsophisticated) nature of decisionmaking in trend following;
  • The science of trading, the importance of defining risk in number terms, and the belief that the world is not linear, with
    unexpected events peppering pricing in the markets;
  • Trading’s holy grails unmasked;
  • How to determine what trading system you should be using in trend following (which market,order size, when to buy or sell, when to get out of a losing position and a winning position).

把投资科学化本身就是错误,那只是在象牙塔内的游戏,跳出象牙塔,一切都是艺术。

中国的厨艺就是最好的解释。

想起那个 阿里 老师,真是捣浆糊的高手。


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